【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Off-season weak demand keeps pulp and paper prices sliding lower.

June 9, 2026, 3:09 PM

WDD-Global

9748

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Pulp prices declined further amid bearish macro sentiment, high port inventories (2.29M tons), and weak downstream restocking demand during the off-season. Softwood pulp averaged RMB 4,875/ton (−RMB 81 w/w), pressured by ample supply—April imports rose 20.1% y/y—and rising short positions. Hardwood pulp held at RMB 4,498/ton (−RMB 22 w/w), dragged down by narrowing price spreads and soft demand. Finished paper sales remained sluggish, with operating rates falling across all categories; tissue and cultural paper prices weakened or stagnated, while white cardboard saw limited gains. With macro risks—including Fed rate hike odds at 70% and new U.S. tariffs—and subdued shipping and energy markets, near-term pulp trading is expected to range weakly between RMB 4,700–5,200/ton.

Pulp prices continued to drift lower this week. The average price of softwood pulp stood at around RMB 4,875 per ton, down RMB 81 per ton from the previous period. Hardwood pulp remained relatively steady, with its spot average price at RMB 4,498 per ton, a drop of RMB 22 per ton week on week. Demand stayed sluggish in the off-season, and paper mills showed little willingness to restock. High softwood pulp inventories proved difficult to digest, while rising short positions on futures weighed on hardwood pulp prices.

1. Bearish macro sentiment weighs on markets; commodity index fluctuates

U.S. non-farm payrolls and PMI data for May both beat expectations, pushing the market’s probability of a Fed rate hike within the year up to 70%. Last Tuesday, the U.S. announced plans to impose additional tariffs of roughly 10% on goods from 60 economies. A stronger U.S. dollar put pressure on commodity markets. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased, prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations remain uncertain. Shipping activity in key waterways stayed subdued, leaving energy prices vulnerable to sharp swings. The Wenhua Commodity Index moved sideways amid market divergence, with long funds continuing to exit the market.

2. Ample softwood pulp supply; hardwood pulp quotations softening

China’s total pulp imports reached 3.218 million tons in April, down 2.4% month on month but up 11.2% year on year. Cumulative imports for the January-April period hit 12.556 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Bleached softwood pulp imports totalled 910,000 tons in April, rising 11.7% month on month and 20.1% year on year.

Sufficient softwood pulp supply and falling futures dented market sentiment, prompting some traders to accelerate shipments. Overseas physical transactions weakened, and downstream buyers remained cautious on purchases.

Hardwood pulp inventory pressure is mild. Nevertheless, the narrow price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp, falling softwood pulp prices and fading downstream regular demand in the off-season dragged down hardwood pulp performance. Reports indicate that most overseas softwood and hardwood pulp transactions have seen price declines, with only a few brands holding firm on quotations.

3. Sluggish sales of finished paper; low willingness for raw material restocking

Domestic tissue paper mills faced substantial inventory pressure and stepped up shipments, with average prices weakening throughout the week. For cultural paper, mill quotations held steady at the start of the month, yet lacking solid fundamental demand, prices stayed flat for the week. White cardboard producers continued to push for price hikes, lifting weekly average prices moderately; however, gains were limited due to slow follow-up orders from end consumers.

Operating rates across all downstream paper categories declined this week. The operating rate of coated art paper fell 0.58% month on month, woodfree offset paper dropped 2.92%, white cardboard edged down 0.15%, and household paper slipped 1.25%. Typical off-season dynamics persist. Downstream paper mills remain prudent in order-taking, and overall demand is tepid, leaving trading activity with little room for improvement.

4. High inventories cap price upside

As of June 4, monitored inventory at major ports stood at 2.29 million tons, down 20,000 tons month on month but still at a historically high level for this time of year. The high proportion of softwood pulp in total inventories continues to suppress prices.

Overall Outlook，Bearish macro sentiment, elevated port inventories and weak restocking appetite among paper mills, combined with falling futures on increased short positions, keep spot pulp prices under pressure. Bearish sentiment dominates the short term. That said, current price levels feature relatively low valuation, and the upcoming peak restocking period in the second half of the year makes aggressive short selling less appealing.

Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels in the near term, with a trading range of RMB 4,700–5,200 per ton. Investors are advised to wait for market stabilization or conduct light range-bound trading. Key monitoring points include downstream restocking intentions, port inventory digestion pace and changes in pulp import costs.

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【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Off-season weak demand keeps pulp and paper prices sliding lower.