【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Off-season inventory pressure mounts, pulp & paper remain weak and range-bound.
3. Marginal demand improvement spotted; monitor sustainability of packaging paper rebound
Finished paper prices drift lower with minimal margin improvement for paper manufacturers, keeping their pulp restocking subdued. Book paper mills and distributors struggle with bloated inventories, but progressive publisher tendering lifts production and sales modestly. Tissue paper supply edges up and downstream converters make moderate purchases alongside slightly improved end-market sales. White cardboard benefits from the packaging paper rally with lean mill inventories, and producers have announced a CNY 200/ton price hike for June orders. Nevertheless, overall terminal consumption stays weak, leaving traders strained by slow inventory turnover and tight capital recovery. Pulp prices gain limited support from downstream demand; focus remains on how long packaging paper’s upturn can last.
4. High port inventories cap upward price space
As of May 28, monitored inventory at major domestic ports totalled 2.31 million tonnes, up 30,000 tonnes sequentially and staying well above seasonal historical average. High proportion of softwood stock continues to put downward pressure on pulp quotes.
Overall OutlookDampened macro sentiment, elevated port stocks and muted mill restocking in off-season, plus falling futures on rising open interest drag down spot pulp prices. Bearish sentiment dominates the near term, yet current pulp valuations are relatively low, and aggressive short positions become inadvisable ahead of the traditional H2 restocking cycle. Pulp is projected to oscillate weakly at lower levels within CNY 4,700–5,200; investors may stay on sidelines pending price stabilisation or conduct small-scale range trading. Keep close track of downstream restocking willingness, port destocking pace and shifts in pulp import costs.
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【Wdoodoo Weekly Cotton Report】Drought in U.S. cotton continues to intensify, with domestic demand closely monitored7844
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【Wdoodoo Weekly Paper Industry Report】Pulp mills cut production to support pulp prices, while weak paper prices limit the upside5406
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【Wdoodoo Weekly Cotton Report】Cotton: Drought fermentation in main production areas drives up cotton prices, while weak demand restricts space above7413
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【Wdoodoo Weekly Paper Industry Report】Frequent shutdowns and production cuts in pulp mills, leading to a new high of rebound in pulp production6352
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【Wdoodoo Weekly Cotton Report】There is a risk of a downturn in recent months, and attention should be paid to whether the demand side is taking over6948
