【Wdoodoo Weekly Cotton Report】Macro bulls and bears clash, cotton has no clear one-sided momentum.

June 23, 2026

WDD-Global

10608

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Cotton prices saw a volatile rebound last week, driven by easing US-Iran tensions and ongoing destocking of low-basis spot cotton. Futures ended higher at 16,010 yuan/ton, while spot cotton rose to 17,200 yuan/ton. Despite steady demand from textile mills and tight supplies of high-quality cotton, the market remains balanced between bullish factors like reduced geopolitical risks and bearish ones such as weak global textile demand, looming tariffs, and macroeconomic pressures. Short-term trading is expected to remain range-bound, with resistance near 16,200 yuan/ton and support at 15,500 yuan/ton. Medium-to-long-term catalysts, including El Niño-induced supply risks and reduced new-cotton output, could drive prices higher in Q3. Key focus areas this week include US-Iran negotiations, weather conditions in cotton-growing regions, textile order trends, and US monetary policy developments.

Cotton prices rebounded amid volatility last week.CF09 futures closed at 16,010 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton week-on-week; spot cotton grade 3128B settled at 17,200 yuan/ton, gaining 265 yuan/ton from the prior week.The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran eased recession fears. Coupled with continuous destocking of low-basis spot cotton accumulated earlier, cotton prices staged an oversold rebound. However, bullish and bearish factors counterbalance each other, with no sustained unilateral trend emerging in the market.

That said, textile mills maintained high production runs, sustaining rigid raw material demand. High-quality spot cotton supplies remain tight amid continuous drawdowns of low-basis cargoes, forming a floor for cotton prices.

Overseas garment exporters face weak orders and compressed profit margins, with external demand recovering sluggishly. The Trump administration unveiled a new tariff proposal, which may impose an additional 12.5% duty on textile goods, stoking market risk aversion.

Overall Market Outlook Multiple bearish headwinds persist: tightening macro liquidity, prospective overseas textile tariffs, and the downstream off-season. On the supportive side lie de-escalating Middle East geopolitics, anticipated Indian output losses from delayed planting, and tight domestic high-grade spot inventories.

The industry lacks powerful bullish catalysts, leaving cotton prices without strong upward momentum in the short run. Zhengzhou cotton faces resistance near 16,200 yuan/ton on rallies, with solid support at 15,500 yuan/ton. Range-bound trading and wait-and-see strategies are recommended for near-term operations.

Over the medium-to-long term, El Niño climate disruptions and looming domestic and overseas new-cotton output losses will keep supply and demand in a tight balance, leaving room for cotton prices to surge in Q3. Investors may wait for price stabilization near the 15,500 support level to initiate long positions.

Key Monitoring Points for This Week