【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Beneath the bearish consolidation, bulls are quietly building positions.

June 16, 2026

WDD-Global

9655

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The pulp market remained in a low-range consolidation this week, with softwood pulp prices slightly rebounding to RMB 4,905/ton while hardwood pulp prices edged down marginally to RMB 4,480/ton. Low seasonal demand and downstream destocking continued to constrain market activity, as paper mills cut prices to clear inventories and showed little interest in restocking raw materials. Oversupply persists, with monitored port inventories at a multi-year high of 2.33 million tons. Global liquidity tightening, including rate hikes by the ECB and anticipated action by the Bank of Japan, weighs on commodities alongside easing geopolitical risks. Overseas pulp offers declined, reflecting cautious demand and high inventory levels. Despite a technical rebound in futures, weak supply-demand fundamentals and sluggish restocking sentiment keep prices capped. Pulp is expected to trade within RMB 4,700–5,000 in the short term, with investors advised to await stabilization while monitoring key indicators like restocking activity, port inventory reductions, and import cost trends.

Pulp stayed in low-range consolidation this week. Driven by oversold rebound on futures market, the average price of softwood pulp stood at around RMB 4,905/ton, up RMB 30 week-on-week; hardwood pulp edged down slowly with spot average price at RMB 4,480/ton, a weekly drop of RMB 18. Downstream end demand offers limited support amid off-season. Paper mills keep cutting prices to destock and show little willingness to restock raw materials, leaving trading activity sluggish across the market.

1. Mounting Global Liquidity Tightening Expectations; Bearish Macro Pressure Weighs on Commodities

The ECB implemented a 25BP rate hike last week, and the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 25BP this week. U.S. PPI printed above market expectations while core CPI eased slightly. Market participants wait cautiously for policy signals from Kevin Warsh’s speech at this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

Geopolitical risk premiums have faded as the U.S. and Iran near a deal to fully reopen shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Receding expectations of surging energy prices help ease inflation pressure and mitigate recession risks.

With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and FOMC meeting approaching, capital outflow is set to continue this week, keeping the Wenhua Commodity Index range-bound sideways.

2. Heavy Inventory Burden; Overseas Offer Prices Soften

Actual overseas softwood pulp transactions weakened in this round amid cautious downstream purchasing. Chilean Arauco released monthly nominal offers: Silver Star at USD 670/ton, down USD 10 from prior levels; Star unchanged at USD 610/ton; Golden Star USD 640/ton, up USD 10/ton.

Softwood pulp supply at ports remains ample. After last week’s oversold futures rebound, some spot traders held back sales at low prices, yet this failed to lift purchasing sentiment among paper mills.

Hardwood pulp faces milder inventory pressure, but softwood-hardwood price spread stays low. Sliding softwood prices plus weakened rigid downstream demand in off-season drag down hardwood pulp performance. Reports indicate most actual overseas softwood and hardwood transaction prices slipped, with only a few brands holding firm offers.

3. Paper Mills Prioritize Price Cuts for Destocking; Raw Material Restocking Sentiment Weak

Off-season conditions persist with sluggish terminal orders. Paper mills are under prominent destocking pressure and continue to rely on price cuts to clear inventories, while downstream processors remain reluctant to replenish finished goods and raw material stocks. Except for white cardboard, operating rates of all major paper grades declined month-on-month. Double-coated paper, offset paper and household paper operating rates fell by 1.53%, 1.15% and 1.52% respectively, pointing to sustained weakness in end demand.

4. High Inventories Cap Price Upside

As of June 11, monitored inventory at major ports reached 2.33 million tons, rising 40,000 tons month-on-month and staying at a multi-year seasonal high. The high proportion of softwood pulp keeps weighing on pulp prices.

Comprehensive Outlook，Bearish macro sentiment, elevated port inventories, lower overseas offers, widespread price-cut destocking by paper mills and weak raw material restocking willingness jointly create a quiet trading market.

Despite current low absolute pulp valuations and narrow softwood-hardwood spread, short covering by bearish traders triggered an oversold technical rebound on futures. Pulp is projected to maintain low-level consolidation in the short run within the range of 4,700–5,000. Investors are advised to stay on sidelines awaiting price stabilization or conduct light range-bound trading.

Though supply and demand fundamentals remain weak and rallies will likely meet resistance, recent price action shows softwood supply pressure is gradually absorbed, and bullish forces may be quietly accumulating strength. Key monitoring indicators include downstream restocking willingness, port destocking pace and fluctuations in import costs.

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【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Beneath the bearish consolidation, bulls are quietly building positions.