【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Persistent oversupply in softwood pulp; pulp & paper sideways at bottom.

April 10, 2026

WDD-Global

1030

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Last week, pulp prices weakened amid sluggish demand and narrowing softwood-hardwood spreads to historic lows (≈500 yuan/ton), with softwood averaging 5,071 yuan/ton (−75) and hardwood at 4,578 yuan/ton (+4). Softwood mills face severe destocking pressure—global inventory days remain near record highs (~50 days), prompting price cuts like Arauco’s Silver Star to $680/ton. Offshore hardwood prices rose but widened import losses (~350 yuan/ton). Paper mills, cautious amid weakening finished paper prices and post-April seasonal concerns, limit purchases and prioritize inventory digestion. Port inventories stay elevated (2.35M tons), while Middle East tensions escalate—U.S. military buildup and Iran negotiations risk oil and shipping disruptions, lifting logistics costs. With futures now below Northern European/North American production costs, output cuts loom. Near-term pulp trading is expected range-bound (5,000–5,300 yuan/ton), awaiting supply-demand catalysts.

Last week, pulp prices trended weaker amid range-bound fluctuations, and the spread between softwood and hardwood pulp narrowed to historic lows. The average spot price of softwood pulp stood at around 5,071 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from the previous period. Hardwood pulp averaged 4,578 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton week-on-week. Traders were active in shipments, yet end-user order follow-through was insufficient, paper mills showed limited willingness to purchase pulp, and market trading sentiment remained thin.

1. First Key Juncture in the Middle East Situation

The United States is accelerating military deployment. With the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group completing its deployment by mid-April, the likelihood of ground operations has risen significantly, raising the risk of an unexpected escalation in U.S.-Israeli-Iranian conflicts. Early this week marks the U.S. deadline for negotiations with Iran; attention will focus on whether a temporary truce can be reached.

The Middle East is currently in a state of simultaneous fighting and negotiations, with the situation evolving toward prolonged confrontation and phased intensification. Crude oil production and shipping in the Persian Gulf continue to be affected. Given the repricing of war risk insurance and time lags in restoring shipping order, commodity costs are expected to stay elevated for an extended period. However, far-month contracts may price in recessionary logic, warranting caution over changes in the term structure.

2. Softwood Pulp Mills Face Major Inventory Destocking Challenges

Affected by structural declines in demand, softwood pulp destocking has proved difficult. Both domestic and overseas markets show a pattern of relatively strong hardwood pulp consumption and weak softwood pulp consumption.Global softwood pulp producers’ inventory days remain around 50 days, a historic high, with price cuts for destocking seen again this month.

Chile’s Arauco lowered its softwood pulp Silver Star price to $680/ton in March, down $30/ton from earlier levels.

Port-side softwood pulp liquidity is ample, with traders actively moving goods; focus remains on the digestion of low-priced cargoes. A rebound in softwood pulp may require more pronounced production cuts and destocking by pulp mills.

The uptrend in offshore hardwood pulp prices has been curbed. In March, offshore prices for eucalyptus hardwood pulp such as Star were raised by $20/ton to $620/ton, translating to an landed import cost of around 4,900 yuan/ton, with an import loss of nearly 350 yuan/ton.

The current softwood-hardwood spread has narrowed to around 500 yuan/ton, putting heavy pressure on traders to take delivery, while downstream paper mills maintain a cautious stance.

3. Weakening Finished Paper Prices Dampen Pulp Purchasing Sentiment

Paper mills have maintained relatively stable operating rates, with weekly downstream paper output continuing to rise. High demand from white top kraft board and tissue paper has supported overall pulp and paper sales and production.

Nevertheless, end-market orders were lackluster with limited firm order follow-through, leading to weak price performance in the base paper market.Fearing pressure from seasonal weakening demand after April, paper mills hold cautious outlooks, focusing on digesting existing raw material inventories and only conducting necessary bargain-hunting purchases on demand.

4. Elevated Port Inventory Pressure

As of Friday, total inventories at major national ports stood at 2.35 million tons, down 50,000 tons from the previous period, but still near historic highs, with limited seasonal destocking during the peak demand season.

Overall ViewThe market has remained sluggish recently, dominated by pulp and paper oversupply, with the softwood-hardwood spread narrowing to historic lows. Paper mills have seen limited improvement in profitability, conducting only small-scale bargain-hunting purchases on rigid demand.However, current futures prices have fallen below the production costs of softwood pulp in Northern Europe and North America, forcing pulp mills to consider output reductions. Coupled with the Middle East conflict, pulp production and transportation costs have risen.Softwood pulp is not highly overvalued, and earlier attempts to break lower on heavy volume failed, making further short-selling less attractive.Pulp prices are expected to gradually consolidate a bottom, with short-term range-bound trading between 5,000 and 5,300 yuan/ton. Investors may wait patiently for shifts in supply-demand expectations or engage in mild range trading.

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