【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Improved Macro Expectations, Limited Rebound in Pulp

July 10, 2026

WDD-Global

7242

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Pulp market trends this week reveal mixed dynamics. Softwood pulp prices rose by RMB 70/ton to RMB 4,794/ton, while hardwood pulp prices dipped by RMB 8/ton to RMB 4,414/ton. Despite improved transactions for discounted cargo, sluggish spot activity persisted as most buyers remained cautious. Internationally, weakening overseas pulp offers and high port inventories exerted downward pressure on prices, with major port stocks exceeding 2.3 million tonnes. Domestically, the downstream papermaking sector faced seasonal production declines, prompting paper mills to limit pulp purchases to essential needs. While demand for certain paper grades like printing and writing paper stabilized, household paper faced shipment challenges, softening prices. Although macro optimism, driven by easing geopolitical risks and anticipated policy support, provided some uplift, market fundamentals remain tilted toward oversupply. Investors are advised to monitor overseas pulp mill maintenance, domestic paper sector recovery, and Fed policy changes, as the near-term outlook remains cautiously bearish.

Pulp futures and spot prices edged higher this week. The average softwood pulp price stood around RMB 4,794/ton, up RMB 70/ton week-on-week; average hardwood pulp price was RMB 4,414/ton, down RMB 8/ton week-on-week. Transactions for low-priced cargo improved, yet most enterprises remained cautious over raw material stocking, and genuine spot follow-up was sluggish across the market.

1.Fading US rate hike expectations plus anticipated domestic growth-stabilizing policies

Middle East geopolitical risks eased. U.S. nonfarm payroll data was revised sharply downward. Kevin Walsh noted a notable decline in inflation expectations, cooling market bets on interest rate hikes within this year, which lifted sentiment across commodity markets.

Domestically, multiple growth-supportive policies were signaled at the Lujiazui Forum. Intensified central government field surveys recently fuel expectations of incremental stimulus measures. Markets await policy tone-setting at the Politburo meeting scheduled at end-July. The macro environment is likely to offer supportive momentum in July.

2. Weak overseas offers; high port inventories weigh on prices

Pulp mills face heavy destocking pressure. Overseas quotations for softwood and hardwood pulp generally slipped by USD 10–20/ton in June. ARAUCO cut its hardwood pulp offer by USD 20/ton in mid-month, substantially dampening market sentiment. Anticipated new hardwood pulp capacity online in the long run weakened price prospects and further undermined support for softwood pulp.

Near-term pulp supplies at ports remain ample. Inventories at major ports hit 2.3 million tonnes, still hovering at seasonal highs. Although trading of discounted softwood pulp improved, overall cargo movement stayed muted. Most traders took advantage of price rebounds to sell on futures market, pushing registered warehouse receipts steadily higher.

3. Paper mills prioritize inventory liquidation; weak appetite for raw material purchases

The downstream papermaking sector entered its traditional off-season. Domestic paper output posted seasonal declines with widening losses. Paper mills adopted a cautious procurement stance and only purchased pulp to meet rigid demand, with muted willingness for proactive restocking.

By paper grades: After partial production shifts among printing & writing paper mills, supply pressure eased slightly. Coupled with gradual order pickup from publishing clients, demand saw mild improvement and prices stayed relatively stable during the week. Ivory board manufacturers retained price defense sentiment, with spot prices edging up pending genuine order confirmation. Household paper producers faced mounting shipment pressure amid flat demand, resulting in slightly softer price levels.

Overall Outlook High port inventories, falling overseas pulp quotations and downstream off-season weakness dominated market fundamentals. Nevertheless, macro sentiment improved, production cut plans by overseas softwood pulp mills have been implemented, and turnover of low-priced softwood pulp picked up. While supply-demand imbalance has marginally alleviated, a trend reversal is yet to materialize.

From a technical perspective, the market remains biased bearish below 4800; investors are advised to stay on the sidelines in the short run. Monitor progress of maintenance shutdowns at overseas pulp mills, operating rate recovery among domestic paper manufacturers, and shifts in Federal Reserve policy.

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【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Improved Macro Expectations, Limited Rebound in Pulp