【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Bullish factors on the supply side, pulp stays strong in bottom-range oscillation.
March 10, 2026
WDD-Global
1552
Guide
Highlights at a glance
Softwood pulp faces persistent oversupply and weak demand, with spot prices flat at ~5,257 yuan/ton amid sluggish post-holiday paper orders and low mill restocking. Hardwood pulp prices dipped to 4,565 yuan/ton as downstream caution offset overseas price hikes. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are elevating energy and shipping costs, pressuring pulp production and logistics. Global softwood inventories hit a record ~50 days, and import hedging constrains upside above 5,500 yuan/ton. Though Finnpap’s planned suspension (2026) offers limited near-term relief, rising shutdowns in Europe/North America—combined with peak-season demand and port inventories at a historic 2.41M tons—suggest market stabilization. Prices likely range between 5,100–5,500 yuan/ton; dip-buying is advised.
Spot supply is loose and demand recovery is slow. Stimulated by the sharp rise in energy and chemical products and the news of Finnpap’s production suspension, pulp staged a difficult rebound last week.The average spot price of softwood pulp stood at around 5,257 yuan/ton, flat week on week.The average spot price of hardwood pulp was 4,565 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous period.After the holiday, end-user orders for finished paper were weak, upward momentum for base paper prices was insufficient, and paper mills showed low willingness to restock raw materials.
1 .Middle East situation spirals out of control, commodity volatility intensifies
Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have escalated, continuing to affect crude oil production and transportation in the Persian Gulf region. Energy and chemical products drove the commodity index sharply higher last week.The current situation is evolving into long-term confrontation with periodic escalations.As war risk is re-priced and shipping order takes time to restore, costs of energy and chemical products are expected to stay elevated for a longer period.Sharp rises in energy prices and European shipping rates will push up pulp production and transportation costs.
Affected by adjustments in papermaking formulas and structural weakening in demand, the oversupply of softwood pulp is expected to be hard to reverse.In January, global softwood pulp producers’ inventory days rebounded to around 50 days, a historical high, making destocking tough.
Softwood pulp quotations were flat in March. Coupled with the rapid appreciation of the RMB recently, lower import costs weighed on futures.The latest import cost of Silver Star pulp is converted to within 5,600 yuan/ton.Since August, actual transaction prices of softwood pulp have been around 680 US dollars, equivalent to about 5,500 yuan/ton; it is difficult to break through this level due to risk-free hedging pressure.
Current market trading is dominated by futures and spot traders, with merchants actively selling, but downstream paper mills have resumed work slowly and real demand orders are lacking.A meaningful rise in softwood pulp may require more significant production cuts and destocking by pulp mills.Earlier this month, Metsä Fibre under Metsä Group announced that the Joutseno pulp mill would suspend production on March 31, 2026.
Hardwood pulp overseas quotations continued to rise. In March, export prices of eucalyptus hardwood pulp such as Starship were raised by 20 US dollars/ton to 620 US dollars/ton, equivalent to an import cost of around 4,900 yuan/ton.However, downstream paper mills remained cautious, placing small-volume orders at suppressed prices, and spot hardwood pulp prices softened.
Operating rates of various paper grades have gradually recovered after the holiday. Finished paper output in January–February stayed at a high level for the same period in history.With the peak season approaching, large-scale paper mills attempted to issue price increase notices.Nevertheless, end-order recovery was slow, leaving limited room for actual price increases of base paper.Paper mills held cautious expectations toward the outlook and limited willingness to restock raw materials.They mainly consumed early inventories and purchased pulp for rigid demand on dips.
4.Port inventory pressure remains highAs of last Friday, inventories at major national ports reached 2.41 million tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, still at an absolute historical high, weighing on market sentiment.
Overall, end-demand recovery is slow, pulp destocking remains difficult, and risk-free import hedging pressure is relatively concentrated above 5,500. Finnpap’s production cut is unlikely to ease short-term market concerns over oversupply.
However, with the March–April papermaking peak season and marginal demand improvement, softwood pulp in Northern Europe and North America has mostly fallen below cost, pulp mill shutdowns and production cuts are frequent, and European shipping disruptions persist, limiting the downside for pulp prices.The market is gradually bottoming out. Prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 5,100–5,500; hold long positions on dips.
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