Loose Supply and Weak Demand, Pulp Market Waits for Post-Holiday Restocking

February 28, 2026, 7:55 PM

WDD-Global

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The global pulp market shows firm offshore prices and ample supply, but demand recovery remains modest—especially in China, where high port inventories (up 9.38% MoM) and slow post-Spring Festival resumption constrain price gains. While international softwood/hardwood pulp quotations provide cost support, domestic prices trade sideways amid weak downstream procurement and thin trading. Packaging and household paper exhibit resilient demand; cultural paper lags. With inventory at a recent high and margins tight, mills adopt on-need buying—not bulk restocking—yet expectations for traditional “Golden March, Silver April” demand may trigger de-stocking. Short-term price action hinges on real order flow and restocking pace; medium-term upside depends on global supply-demand rebalancing and domestic capacity-driven essential demand. Key watchpoints: port stocks, operating rates, offshore quotes, and producer-country policies.

The global pulp market is characterized by firm offshore prices, ample supply, and modest demand recovery. Affected by the slow pace of post-Spring Festival resumption and high port inventory accumulation, China’s pulp prices fluctuated within a range. The core contradiction lies between global cost support and high domestic inventory + weak demand, as the market awaits concentrated downstream restocking during the traditional "Golden March, Silver April" peak season.

I. Global Pulp Market: Steady Offshore Prices, Ample Supply, Divergent Demand

During this period, global wood pulp offshore prices remained firm, with import quotations for softwood and hardwood pulp staying high, providing cost-side support to the domestic market. Global supply was generally loose, with stable shipments from South America and Europe, and no large-scale production disruptions. Demand showed regional and product-level divergence.

(I) Supply Side: Stable Global Shipments, Obvious Hardwood Pulp Increment

Production in major global regions operated steadily, with South American hardwood pulp output continuing to increase, and softwood pulp supply from Europe and North America remaining normal.

The tightening forestry policy in Indonesia had limited impact and did not cause global supply contraction in the short term, keeping tradable pulp volumes sufficient.

Maritime logistics recovered, accelerating arrival schedules and laying the groundwork for domestic inventory accumulation.

(II) Demand Side: Modest Overseas Recovery, Lagging Post-Holiday Rebound in China

Demand for packaging paper in Europe and North America recovered moderately, demand for household paper remained resilient, while cultural paper was still in the off-season.

Downstream paper enterprises in China just entered the post-holiday resumption stage, with slow order recovery; procurement was mainly on-need basis, with no centralized stockpiling.

Global demand had not fully recovered, making it difficult to absorb the current ample supply, thus limiting upward momentum for pulp prices.

(III) Price Performance: Firm Offshore Support, Domestic Range-bound Fluctuation

International offshore prices for softwood and hardwood pulp stayed stable, with some brands raising prices slightly, setting a floor for import costs.

The domestic spot market stabilized first and then rose slightly. The average spot price of softwood pulp was 5,268 yuan/ton, and hardwood pulp 4,577 yuan/ton, with thin trading.

The main pulp futures contract on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose first and then fell, fluctuating within the range of 5,200–5,400 yuan/ton during the week.

II. China Pulp Market: High Inventory Pressure, Slow Resumption, Resilient Essential Demand

During this period, the domestic pulp market featured loose supply, modest demand recovery, and inventory accumulation. Policies remained stable, market sentiment was cautious, and prices mainly moved sideways.

(I) Supply Side: Concentrated Arrivals, High Domestic Output, Ample Overall Supply

High import pulp arrivals seen in January continued into February, with centralized unloading after logistics resumed, driving inventories higher.

Domestic pulp output maintained a high level, and rising self-sufficiency further reduced reliance on imports.

Sample inventory at major ports reached 2.401 million tons, up 9.38% month-on-month and 4.39% year-on-year, hitting a recent high, with significant oversupply pressure on softwood pulp.

(II) Demand Side: Accelerating Resumption, Divergent Structure, Thin Trading

Packaging, printing and other industries gradually resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the operating rate of the national paper industry rebounded in February.

Demand divergence: packaging paper and white paperboard showed relatively strong essential demand, cultural paper demand was weak, and household paper recovered steadily.

Downstream paper mills faced low profit margins, so procurement was limited to small on-need orders, resulting in weak market trading.

Paper mills intended to raise prices, but limited terminal acceptance made price increases hard to implement.

(III) Policy and Cost: Offshore Price Support, Limited Downside Room

Firm international pulp prices and high wood chip costs formed a solid bottom support, limiting the downside for pulp prices.

There were no new domestic policy disturbances, and the market moved based on fundamentals.

III. Period Summary and Future Outlook

During this period, global pulp supply and demand were loose, and the Chinese market was in a transitional phase of post-holiday resumption plus high inventory, with pulp prices fluctuating sideways. High inventory and weak demand capped upside, while offshore costs and essential restocking provided downside support.

Short term:

Full downstream resumption in March and expectations of "Golden March, Silver April" restocking may drive inventory de-stocking, leading to a stronger sideways trend in pulp prices. Focus should be placed on real orders and procurement volume.

Medium to long term:

Global supply will move toward balance, and the expansion of domestic paper machine capacity will bring incremental essential demand. If demand continues to recover, the pulp price center is expected to shift gradually upward. Continuous attention should be paid to four key variables: port inventory, downstream operating rates, offshore quotations, and policies in major producing countries.

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