【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Pulp Sees Low-Level Heavy Volume Gameplay; False Breakout Verifies Bottom Support
March 24, 2026
WDD-Global
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During the pulp-paper weekly negotiations, market purchasing and selling activities slowed notably. Last week, the main pulp contract briefly fell below the 5,000-yuan mark. The average spot price of softwood pulp stood at around 5,128 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton week-on-week. The average spot price of hardwood pulp was 4,531 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous period. Finished paper faced difficulties in raising prices, downstream paper mills showed weaker willingness to restock raw materials, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed in the market.
1. Middle East Tensions Risk Spiraling Out of Control, Lifting Commodity Costs for an Extended Period
The Middle East situation is evolving toward prolonged confrontation with periodic escalations, continuing to disrupt crude oil production and shipping in the Persian Gulf. Due to the repricing of war risk insurance and time lags in restoring shipping order, commodity costs are expected to remain elevated for a longer period. Recently, however, market concerns over a macroeconomic recession have emerged, with sharp declines in non-ferrous metals roiling the commodity market.
2. Softwood Pulp Faces High De-stocking Pressure; Further Pulp Mill Production Cuts Needed
Affected by adjustments in papermaking formulas and structural weakening in demand, softwood pulp de-stocking has been challenging. In January, global softwood pulp producers’ inventory days rebounded to around 50 days, a historic high.
Since August, actual transaction prices of softwood pulp have hovered around 680 USD, equivalent to an import cost of roughly 5,500 yuan/ton. Currently, port liquidity of softwood pulp is ample, with traders actively selling, yet spot trading is thin. Softwood spot prices fell sharply again last week. A rebound in softwood pulp may require more pronounced production cuts and de-stocking by pulp mills.
Overseas quotations for hardwood pulp are reported to extend gains. In March, offshore prices for star-grade eucalyptus hardwood pulp were raised by 20 USD/ton to 620 USD/ton, equivalent to an import cost of about 4,900 yuan/ton, representing an import loss of over 350 yuan/ton. Last week, the softwood-hardwood price spread narrowed to around 500 yuan, putting heavy receiving pressure on traders and making downstream paper mills cautious.
3. Seasonal Recovery in End Demand, but Limited Implementation of Finished Paper Price Hikes
Operating rates across paper grades gradually recovered after the holiday. Finished paper output in January–February remained at a high level for the same period in history. However, end-order follow-through was modest, and base paper prices lacked upward momentum. Fearing pressure from seasonal weakening demand in April, paper mills held cautious outlook toward the market, focusing on consuming early raw material inventories and only conducting rigid pulp purchases on dips.
4. Elevated Port Inventory Pressure
As of Friday, total inventories at major national ports stood at 2.3 million tons, down 80,000 tons from the previous period but still at a relatively high level. Further observation will be made on the pace of seasonal port de-stocking.
Overall View,The market remains dominated by pulp and paper oversupply, with limited improvement in paper mills’ profitability. Trading slowed during the pulp-paper weekly negotiations, and both futures and spot prices hit new adjustment lows last week. Nevertheless, current disk prices have fallen sharply below the production costs of softwood pulp in Northern Europe and North America, forcing pulp mills to cut output. Coupled with the Middle East conflict, pulp production and shipping costs have risen.Pulp valuations are now at a low level, with a heavy-volume false downside breakout seen last week. Short-selling risks should be avoided at current levels. Pulp prices are expected to gradually consolidate a bottom, fluctuating in a range of 5,000–5,300 yuan/ton in the short term, with opportunities for long positioning at low levels.
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