【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Bulls and bears interweave while the off-season weighs on prices; pulp continues range-bound bottoming consolidation.

June 23, 2026, 4:49 PM

WDD-Global

8862

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Pulp prices experienced volatility this week, with softwood pulp dropping to 4,892 yuan/ton and hardwood pulp to 4,466 yuan/ton amid weak market demand and low transaction activity. Geopolitical and macroeconomic factors remain mixed; easing geopolitical risks and pro-growth policies contrast with hawkish central bank stances, fostering economic uncertainty. Weak overseas pulp offers and high port inventories constrain supply-side optimism, while paper mills face sluggish demand, off-season production cuts, and thin margins, reducing their willingness to restock raw materials. Although futures saw a short-term rebound, the overarching bearish factors—ample supply, limited demand, and muted transactions—continue to suppress prices. While softwood pulp supply tightens gradually due to production curtailments, sustained bullish momentum hinges on clearer signs of restocking, inventory drawdowns, and shifting import costs.

Pulp prices surged then retreated this week.The average price of softwood pulp stood at around 4,892 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week-on-week; the average hardwood pulp price was 4,466 yuan/ton, falling 14 yuan/ton from the previous week.Paper mills face persistent processing margin pressure and show little enthusiasm for raw material restocking. Demand lacks volume support, spot prices struggle to rally, and physical trade turnover remains thin.

1. Conflicting Macro Bull-Bear Factors; Tight Liquidity Weighs on Commodities in Long Run

The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Lower crude oil prices alleviated inflation pressure and cooled recession trading sentiment. The Lujiazui Forum rolled out pro-growth policies, fueling expectations of support for domestic demand.

However, the newly appointed Fed Chair holds a hawkish bias and raised inflation and interest rate forecasts, stoking expectations of tighter liquidity in Europe and the US, which will cap bulk commodity prices over the medium and long term.

Marked divergence between macro bullish and bearish views has boosted risk-averse sentiment among capital. Commodities as a whole trade sideways, with no sustained directional moves on the horizon.

2. Weak Overseas Offers & Elevated Port Inventories Weigh on Supply Side

Pulp mills face heavy destocking pressure. Overseas June offers for both softwood and hardwood pulp edged down by USD 10–20 per ton. Coupled with steady appreciation of the RMB, import costs declined, exerting bearish pressure on the market.

China’s pulp imports reached 2.99 million tons in May, down 7% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year. Port supplies remain ample, with major port inventories at 2.33 million tons, staying well above the seasonal historical average.

Softwood pulp features abundant liquidity, resulting in heavy spot selling pressure during price rebounds. Hardwood pulp inventory pressure is milder, yet weak rigid demand in the off-season, alongside narrow softwood-hardwood price spreads, has suppressed transaction activity.

3. Paper Mills Cut Prices to Clear Stocks; Weak Appetite for Raw Material Purchases

Price trends diverge across paper grades: coated white board mills hold firm pricing intentions with mild weekly price hikes, while printing & writing paper and tissue paper suffer from sluggish demand and sustained price declines.

The paper industry has entered its traditional off-season with widespread operating rate cuts across mills. Operating rates for coated art paper, offset paper and tissue paper retreated month-on-month. Terminal orders are lackluster, finished paper inventories keep accumulating, and mill margins remain razor-thin. Manufacturers are reluctant to build raw material stocks and only make minimal purchases to meet rigid production needs. Though domestic paper output volume stays high for this time of year, pulp consumption fell month-on-month, failing to drive pulp prices higher.

Overall Outlook Multiple bearish factors persist: elevated port inventories, reduced pulp mill offers, finished paper price cuts for destocking, and muted restocking willingness among paper mills.

Short-term short covering triggered an oversold rebound on futures, yet the core backdrop of loose supply and feeble off-season demand remains unchanged. Lacking backing from robust spot transactions, prices face stiff upward resistance.

Futures currently trade within the range of 4,700–5,000 yuan/ton, maintaining low-level consolidation in the near term. Range-bound two-way trading strategies are recommended.

That said, pulp mills have scheduled substantial production curtailments and shutdowns for Q3. As low-priced softwood supplies are gradually consumed, bullish momentum is building up slowly. Market participants will closely monitor the pace of downstream concentrated restocking, the scale of port inventory drawdowns, and shifts in overseas wood pulp import costs, awaiting clear stabilization signals before establishing directional positions.

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【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Bulls and bears interweave while the off-season weighs on prices; pulp continues range-bound bottoming consolidation.