【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Pulp and paper oversupply hinders destocking; pulp awaits a breakthrough for a new cycle.

May 19, 2026, 11:05 AM

WDD-Global

170

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Pulp futures surged then retreated, ending sideways at lower levels amid weak demand and high port inventories (2.3M tons). Softwood pulp spot prices rose slightly to ¥5,063/ton; hardwood dipped to ¥4,546/ton—narrowing the spread to a 5-year low (<¥500), supporting softwood stability. Downstream paper mills remain cautious, cutting production and restocking only on dips. US inflation and Fed tightening expectations, plus China’s invoice regulation, have shifted commodities into range-bound trading. Overseas pulp offers are stable but weak; Arauco held May prices, Silver Star at $680/ton. Packaging paper shows marginal improvement, while coated art and household paper stay soft. With ¥5,000 acting as strong support and limited downside, the pulp index is expected to trade between ¥5,000–¥5,200 short-term.

Pulp futures surged then retreated last week, moving narrowly sideways at lower levels. The average spot price of softwood pulp stood at around 5,063 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton week-on-week. The average spot price of hardwood pulp was 4,546 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan per ton. Downstream paper mills showed low production enthusiasm with cautious restocking sentiment, low acceptance of high-priced goods, leading to sluggish market transactions.

1. Shift of Core Driving Forces, Commodity Indices Turn Range-bound

US-Iran tensions remain volatile with negotiations and conflicts coexisting, and no fundamental resolution is expected in the short term, yet commodity markets have largely priced out Middle East-related impacts.

US inflation rebounded beyond expectations, and the upcoming official tenure of new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh has reignished monetary tightening expectations. China’s strict regulation on invoice-related transactions has disrupted domestic commodity liquidity this year, pushing bulk commodity indices from trending moves into sideways fluctuations.

2. Overseas Offers Stay Weak and Stable, Pulp Mills Face Heavy Inventory Pressure

Arauco kept its May pulp offers unchanged; Silver Star pulp was quoted at USD 680 per ton with tight supply.

Softwood pulp fluctuated along futures prices. Some traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, pushing spot basis slightly stronger. Nevertheless, domestic demand weakened seasonally and downstream players stayed on the sidelines. A notable rally in softwood pulp relies on substantial inventory digestion at pulp mills and ports.

Hardwood pulp remained weak with poor high-price trading, and market participants cut prices to boost sales. Amid the traditional off-season for pulp and paper products, finished paper faced heavy shipment pressure. Paper mills cut production to destock and only made rigid raw material purchases on dips, leading lower-priced mechanical pulp prices to decline as well. Demand support for hardwood pulp faded, with 4,500 yuan per ton acting as key support for eucalyptus pulp.

Still, hardwood pulp is at relatively low price levels with limited inventory pressure, so off-season downside impact is expected to be manageable. The price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp narrowed to below 500 yuan, hitting a five-year low. After being weighed down by previous liquidation, bleached softwood pulp prices began to stabilize. The narrowed pulp price spread is set to underpin softwood pulp gradually.

3. Off-season Demand Under Pressure, Packaging Paper Shows Marginal Improvement

Operating rates across all paper grades dipped amid sluggish end-user demand and heavy finished goods inventory pressure. To ease operational burdens, paper mills mainly purchased raw materials at lower prices.

Coated cardboard followed packaging paper in pushing up prices with mild firmness, while demand for coated art paper and household paper remained tepid, keeping their prices weak.

4. Persistently High Port Inventory Pressure

As of last week, pulp inventory at major domestic ports totaled 2.3 million tons, down 70,000 tons week-on-week but still staying at a historical high for the same period. Shipping data points to a marginal decline in future pulp arrivals; focus remains on whether sustained port destocking can be realized.

Overall Market OutlookSlack trading in the demand off-season and high port inventory keep capping pulp prices with strong selling pressure on rallies. That said, softwood pulp saw mild basis recovery and packaging paper showed improving signs. Pulp prices failed multiple times to break below the 5,000-yuan mark on heavy volume, leaving limited room for short selling.

The pulp index is expected to fluctuate between 5,000 and 5,200 yuan in the short term. Investors are advised to wait for clearer supply-demand changes or conduct moderate range-bound trading.

【Wdoodoo Weekly Cotton Report】Bullish speculation fades, Zhengzhou cotton continues to consolidate

【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Softwood pulp faces heavy destocking pressure, with pulp prices fluctuating weakly.

Papermaking Industry

Textile Industry

Paper Packaging Industry

Rubber Industry

Recycling Industry

Robotics Industry

Hygiene Products and Materials

【Wdoodoo Weekly Pulp Report】Pulp and paper oversupply hinders destocking; pulp awaits a breakthrough for a new cycle.